Replace the monarch with an elected president, the argument used to go, and Frank Bruno could end up as British head of state. For Frank Bruno you can now read Duncan Bannatyne or Theo Paphitis. That, at least, is if the Irish presidential race is anything to go by.
The political establishment in Dublin is facing the fact that a ‘business angel’ from the Irish version of Dragons’ Den is leading the polls as the people of Ireland prepare to elect a new president tomorrow.
The race helps us understand why Ireland elected a centre right-Labour coalition at the start of the year. And, with allegations of an attempted assassination, a quick diversion to consider the merits of classical pederasty, and a former terrorist leader entering the contest, the 2011 Irish presidential campaign has also provided a gripping diversion from IMF austerity packages.
“Put a queen back” in change
Candidates have clamoured to take on the mantle of the anti-politician politician. The early front runner was an independent senator who made history in 1993 by forcing the political establishment to decriminalise homosexuality.
In many ways an unlikely People’s President, David Norris is a Protestant out of the Southern Unionist mould. He once quipped that his campaign slogan would be “put a queen back in the lodge”, a reference to the former vice-regal lodge which is now the official residence of the Irish president.
However, Norris haemorrhaged support when he failed to draw a clear enough distinction in people’s minds between his (largely academic) interest in pederasty and paedophilia.
The terminal blow was the publication of letters in which Norris appealed for clemency to an Israeli court which had convicted a former boyfriend of the statutory rape of a 15-year-old Palestinian male.
‘Attempted assassination’
At the other end of the spectrum, but every bit as colourful, is Dana, ultra-conservative Catholic and sometime MEP and Eurovision winner.
The most recent twist in her chaotic and emotional presidential bid was a tyre blow-out in her battle-Peugeot, which her husband (and driver) feared was an attempted assassination. An initial police investigation has ruled this out, but Dana continues to generate huge entertainment value.
Another Mary
Ireland has had a president answering to the name Mary for almost 21 years. Mary Davis, Special Olympics organiser and self-styled do-gooder, had the political parties rattled with her bid to extend the Maryfest by another seven years.
However, she was quickly revealed to be a ‘Quango Queen’, boasting several state appointments which had more than the whiff of political cronyism. Any lingering hope that Davis could present herself as detached from the elite which brought Ireland to economic ruin was dashed when she was forced to admit omitting from her CV the membership of a bank’s board.
Politically toxic
Other than one of the Marys – Mary Robinson – Ireland has always had a president backed by Fianna Fail. It is a remarkable measure of the Fianna Fail leadership’s view of the party’s toxicity that, after much internal wrangling, it was decided not to field a candidate.
It is a bit like Ed Miliband declaring Labour won’t contest the London mayoral election because of the mess the party made of the economy. It is more like the Communist Party of China saying it will take a break from politics.
In its weakened state, Fianna Fail has a deep fear of being usurped by Sinn Fein. And no sooner had Fianna Fail pulled out of the contest than Martin McGuinness announced he would run.
Northern interloper
Taking leave of absence from his post as “joint First Minister” of Northern Ireland, McGuinness came south presenting himself as the ultimate political outsider. This is a phoney persona that he has struggled to carry off when faced with questions about the jobs his administration is cutting and the A&E departments it is closing.
His campaign lost considerable momentum when he was confronted in a shopping centre by the son of an Irish soldier murdered by the IRA the terrorist organisation which McGuiness admits playing a leading role in.
Nevertheless, in the absence of an official Fianna Fail candidate, it is hard to see how McGuinness won’t capture some of that party’s vote.
Punishing politicians
However, Fianna Fail can be allowed a chuckle at the misfortune of the candidate from the main governing party, Fine Gael.
Despite an ambitious programme of austerity measures, FG is riding high in the polls on 36 per cent. However, its presidential candidate, Gay Mitchell, is languishing on 6 per cent. He comes across every inch the politician’s politician and is being punished for his patronising politicians-know-best style.
More than anything else, the Irish electorate is keen to hurt any candidate who can’t present themselves as angry with the political establishment. The resounding General Election victory achieved by Fine Gael and Labour was more about punishing Fianna Fail, the incumbent politicians, than it was about positively endorsing the policies of the winning parties.
Now the FG candidate is feeling some of that anti-politics anger which is mainly directed at Fianna Fail, but which includes anyone seen as representing the political elite.
Commode
Mitchell did provide one of the more bizarre moments of the campaign when the automaton malfunctioned and – quite incredibly – he appeared to tell an interviewer, with no little anger, that he would like to empty a commode on him.
Mitchell told the presenter: “I know where I’d like to dump that commode you were talking about.” Unable to conceal his anger, he then went on to berate the TV host and audience for what he felt was a lack of high-brow questions for high-brow political brains.
Dragons’ Den
After running scared from the fight, Fianna Fail must also be taking some pleasure from the fact that Sean Gallagher, of Dragons’ Den fame, is leading the opinion polls.
A former member of the Fianna Fail national executive, with businesses that rode the wave of Ireland’s construction bubble, Gallagher is firmly from the Fianna Fail gene pool and makes an unlikely independent, let alone the leading one.
Perhaps this tells us that Fianna Fail is not as toxic as many people had perceived. More likely, what his lead tells us is that Gallagher has benefitted from being able to style himself as a grassroots grafter. He was a foot soldier, more interested in community activism than national politics, his argument goes.
Premature payout
The Dragons’ Den man has been seen as the only non-professional politician who can beat the retired Labour minister that some bookies premature paid out on, Michael D Higgins.
The payout was premature because with just days to go, Gallagher was polling a seemingly unassailable 40 per cent compared to 25 per cent for the second-placed Higgins. However, it is a measure of the volatility of the Irish electorate that Higgins could yet overturn that sizable lead.
Poet politician
Michael D, as he is affectionately known, is a retired arts minister and academic who wastes no opportunity to remind people that it was he who introduced tax breaks for the Irish film industry.
The 70-year-old, who has published three volumes of poetry, knows his task has been to float above party politics and try not to get dragged into an undignified dogfight. This he has done with mixed success. With a demeanour more like an academic than a politician, Higgins somehow appears to resemble a rather sanctimonious geriatric Womble.
He has the demeanour of a man who believes it is his right to be president. Like it would be doing the Irish people a favour. Higgins referred in a debate this week to the presidency: “to which I hope and expect to be elected if the people do their job”.
Money in envelopes
So will the people do their job, defy the polls, overcome their instincts and elect a retired politician as president?
Of course no Irish election is complete without a controversy about money in envelopes. Gallagher’s remarkable rise to the top of the polls has brought with it increased scrutiny. This week Martin McGuinness, of all people, interrogated Gallagher about his links with a convicted fuel smuggler.
Gallagher, it is alleged, visited the smuggler’s premises to collect an envelope containing a £5,000 donation to Fianna Fail. Gallagher’s recollection of this apparent meeting has been inconsistent at best.
A retired politician could yet win
The Irish people are now asking themselves if they really want a president with unanswered questions. Unanswered questions about accepting political donations from a convicted criminal which seem to prove a strong link to the former masters of the political class, Fianna Fail, are enough to slay the most popular of celebrities.
An upset could still be in the cards. A retired politician could yet win.
Eoghan Williams has written widely on Irish affairs, including for the Sunday Independent