Articles

How to think about how to win in 2015

Fiona Melville

3rd Oct 2011

In 2007, some friends and I set up Platform10 – to promote the platform which would enable the Conservatives to get to Number 10. We are unashamed modernisers. Or to put it another way, we are unashamedly about trying to explain what it is to be a Conservative in today’s Britain. So what we’ve always tried to do is make rational arguments. We’ve always tried to say, this is why something is right (or wrong), here is the Conservative way of thinking about such things, and here is how Conservatives can be on the right side of both the facts and voters.

My starting point is probably a bit uncomfortable for those of us who are Party members – but we need to remember that what we, as Conservatives, think about ourselves is largely irrelevant; it’s what voters think that counts. There is no point in us thinking we’re great if no-one else does. And for too long, too few people thought we were great. That has changed in recent years, and we now have the opportunity to put into practice many of the policies that we’ve been working on for years. The ultimate proof of our fitness to govern again is actually governing, and this government – while a coalition, with all the compromises that entails – has both the opportunity and the imperative to deliver on the ideas we spoke about in Opposition.

Those ideas are rooted in our Conservative principles. In 2006, I was part of the Conference team which made a video about the history of the Conservative Party, and all the radical improvements we had made while in government. That radical thread runs through every successful Conservative government – but what gives those governments the capacity to be radical is, first of all, the trust and the confidence that they have established with voters.

There is an ongoing argument about whether politicians should lead or follow public opinion. I’d argue that they should do both. They need to respond to what voters want; and, in delivering what has been voted for, they build up a relationship which means that radical ideas can be taken at face value rather than voters being suspicious of politicians’ motives. So rather than looking at headline voting intention, I have become a fan of looking at perception measures.

In mid-September, Populus released their regular results on party image. They have been running similar questions since 2003, so they are an interesting long-term reflection of opinion. September’s poll showed that only 30 per cent of voters believe that Tories “are for ordinary people not the rich”. I would utterly dispute that belief – as would, I’m sure, every person reading this – but the fact remains that 70 per cent of people don’t think we are ‘for them’.

23 per cent of voters, according to a ComRes poll, think that the Lib Dems “have done a good job of moderating Conservative policies”. The Independent implies that this is a low, and therefore disappointing, number. I disagree. It is a high, and therefore disappointing, number. We Conservatives should not need to have our policies “moderated” in popular opinion. We should ensure that our policies make clear that we are on the side of normal people.

I would argue that in most cases, we are achieving that. Sorting the national finances, free schools, more accountable policing, more responsive councils, a fairer welfare system, greater individual freedoms… These are all things that Conservatives can be proud to be delivering. But I also contend that we, as Conservatives, as a government, are not presenting our argument very well. We’re not telling people enough about why the (needed) cuts are worth it, and where we will be once all the radical changes we’re introducing take effect. I am utterly convinced that governing well is the most effective way for us to win the next election. In order to govern well, Conservatives must persuade voters of the value of what we’re doing – and what we’re doing must matter to voters.

We need to explain what we’re doing, and why, and how. We need to ensure that we own the good policies as well as the tough ones. We need to explain how we make their lives better. If we can’t, we shouldn’t be introducing that policy. ‘Modernising’ was always shorthand for rebuilding that bond of trust with voters and responding to the world as it evolves around us. It is not, and never has been, about being spikily contrary for the sake of it. The key insight was – and remains – that you cannot win an election if voters think that you don’t understand or like or support them.

We will only win in 2015 if we get governing right now. It won’t be enough, in 2014, to suddenly say that we weren’t just about cuts and arguments over whether or not we were ‘conservative’ enough. Voters need to know, with certainty, in 2015, that we don’t need to be ‘moderated’ and – crucially – that we are ‘for them’.

This piece first appeared in the Conference edition of the CWF magazine, Forward

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